Waiting for Rates to Drop? 23 Years of Data Say Think Again
The question I hear most from Houston buyers right now is simple: should I wait for mortgage rates to come down? It’s a fair question. A new study just put real numbers behind the answer.
What the study found
AD Mortgage compared buying a home right away against waiting two years, in every state plus Washington, D.C., from 2000 through 2022. Buying right away produced the lower total purchase and financing cost in 61% of those scenarios. That’s with the waiting buyer getting a head start: the study assumed they saved 10% of median household income each year while they waited.
The surprising part: between 2013 and 2015, the average 30-year fixed rate dipped from 3.98% to 3.85%, yet the people who bought in 2013 still came out ahead in 84% of state scenarios. Rising prices and the slow pace of saving cancelled out the lower rate.
A lower rate on a higher price isn’t always a better deal.
Running the numbers on a Houston home
According to the Houston Association of Realtors, the median single-family home sold for $330,000 in August, with the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.67%. With 15% down, that’s roughly $1,804 a month in principal and interest.
Now say you wait two years. Rates fall to 6%, but prices rise 3% a year. That same home costs about $350,100, and your payment lands around $1,784. You saved about $20 a month, needed roughly $3,000 more at closing, and gave up two years of building equity.
To be fair, if prices stay flat while rates fall, waiting wins: that payment drops closer to $1,682. That’s exactly the study’s point. Nobody can reliably predict both prices and rates at the same time.
Why today is a buyer’s window in Houston
Here’s what rate-watchers miss. Houston has 38,947 active listings and 5.3 months of supply, above the national average of 4.6 months, and homes are taking an average of 54 days to sell. More choices and more time mean more room to negotiate on price, repairs, and seller-paid closing costs. Those concessions can do more for your monthly payment than a quarter-point rate drop. And if rates do fall later, you can refinance. You can’t go back and buy at yesterday’s price.
Buying now isn’t always right. During the 2007 to 2010 housing crash, waiting won every time, and the study is based on history, not a forecast. The real question isn’t whether the market is perfect. It’s whether you’re ready: stable income, savings in place, and a home you’ll live in for several years.
See what waiting would actually cost you.
Tell me the price range and neighborhoods you’re considering, and I’ll run a side-by-side comparison on real Houston listings.
No obligation. Straight answers, even if the answer is “wait.”
Sources: AD Mortgage, “Does the Perfect Time to Buy Exist?” (2026); Houston Association of Realtors, August 2026 Housing Market Update. Payment examples are illustrations assuming 15% down, principal and interest only, and exclude taxes, insurance, and mortgage insurance. This article is general information, not financial or lending advice.